Presidential Election Results Roll In, Four contested states hold key to winning presidency
As Presidential Election Results Roll In, Take Care Ohio Florida Pennsylvania Virginia. The four contested states hold key to winning presidency.
Florida. Ohio. Virginia. Pennsylvania. After nearly two years of stump speeches, commercials, infomercials, debates, robocalls, conventions, a landfill’s worth of mailings, hundreds of rallies and a mountain of yard signs, the presidential race could be decided Tuesday (November 4) by a handful of precincts in four crucial states.
While most polls show Democratic Senator Barack Obama up by as many as eight points nationally and leading in several key battleground states, Republican challenger Senator John McCain has warned that he’s been counted out before, reviving his “Mac is back!” rallying cry over the weekend.
At the end of an election cycle that has seen more twists and turns than anyone could have predicted, CNN political director Mark Preston went to the interactive big board to gauge some of the potential scenarios for Election Day. As of 6 p.m. ET Monday, CNN’s election-prediction calculator had Obama with a White House-winning 291 electoral votes (270 are required for victory) to McCain’s 157. Preston said to keep an eye on the seven toss-up states CNN has judged to be crucial to either man’s win: Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, North Dakota and Montana. Even if McCain picks those states up, though, he’s still 23 votes short of a victory, unless he can pick up Pennsylvania as well, which gets him two votes away from the prize.
“If McCain wins Pennsylvania, there’s a good chance he’ll win Ohio, Indiana and Missouri,” Preston said, in which case he suggested looking for results from Indiana, where polls close at 7 p.m. ET, as well as Virginia and Georgia. A half-hour later, Ohio and North Carolina roll in, and while Preston doubted anyone would call the evening that early, by then, exit polls will be coming in and the night will begin shaping up. By 9 p.m. ET, the big Western states start closing the polls. If the race is neck-and-neck, you might see states that have traditionally gone one way or the other flip, and suddenly Colorado and Minnesota could play decisive roles.
Here are some key areas to watch in the four most hotly contested states Tuesday night as election results start coming in:
Northern Virginia
This key state has voted Republican for every president since 1964. But in this incredibly tight election, even a traditionally red state like Virginia is starting to seem a bit purple, with Obama leading slightly in a number of polls. Virginia could be the key to it all, according to JeRemy Mayer, associate professor in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University in Fairfax County. “If McCain loses Virginia, it’s pretty much over,” Mayer said of the state’s crucial 13 electoral votes.
Mayer said the key areas to watch are the Norfolk area, where Obama has had a lot of success in getting out the vote, and Northern Virginia counties such as Arlington and Loudoun, where a formerly solid red voting record has gone from purple to predictably blue.
Hamilton County, Ohio
Election officials said this week that they’re expecting record turnout in the state that has been the linchpin to victories in the most recent presidential races and has voted with the winning candidate every time in the past 10 presidential elections. With 20 electoral votes at stake, at press time, Obama had a seven-point lead in the Buckeye State.
Anticipating potential issues, the Cincinnati Enquirer reported that dozens of lawyers and federal judges will be working late Tuesday night in case of any potential voting snafus. And because all the ballots from those who voted early (estimated at 20 percent of Ohioans) don’t get tabulated until after the polls close at 7:30 p.m., officials are warning that it could be a very late night for counting the votes.
According to Mayer, Ohio, like Florida, is a “mosaic” state, where you find a bit of everything. “You have Southern Ohio, which is basically like the Confederacy in its ethos, then larger urban areas and parts that are indistinguishable from the Midwest, as well as the Rust Belt and some smaller cities,” he said.
In some ways, Ohio is the golden ticket to the presidency, since no 20th-century candidate, with the exception of John F. Kennedy, has won the office without taking the state. “The nation tends to go the way Ohio and Missouri do, because they’re so much like the whole country,” Mayer said.
One key area to watch is Franklin County, north of Columbus, where Mayer predicted Obama could wrap things up if he does better than Senator John Kerry did there in 2004.
James Thurber, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University in Washington, D.C., said another key place in Ohio to watch (and, coincidentally, this writer’s home base) is Hamilton County in Cincinnati. “Cincinnati has a Democratic mayor now, and Obama thinks he can carry that [traditionally conservative] area. If he can, it’s a bellwether to watch,” Thurber said. “It’s too close to call, but look closely at the turnout in Cleveland, Akron and Canton for McCain, and Toledo and Hamilton County for Democrats.”
Bucks County, Pennsylvania
Democrat John Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004, and though most polls show the state leaning toward Obama (who has a seven-point lead in the latest USA Today/ Gallup poll), McCain’s camp has insisted in recent days that his numbers are on the rise in that state, hit hard by the struggling economy.
Unlike Ohio and Virginia, Pennsylvania did not allow early voting, so its citizens could be making final decisions in the hours before polls open Tuesday. Mayer believes the state is “very susceptible” to a late McCain surge, especially if Obama support weakens thanks to some late-breaking attacks launched by an outside group focused on the Illinois senator’s controversial former minister. “If those ads hit white working-class voters hard, it could make a big difference,” Mayer said. And given the racially charged political history of the state, with large black populations in Philadelphia trending Democratic and the rural white vote trending Republican, if McCain can keep those historical patterns in place, “It could be a long night.”
Some key areas to watch are Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where, Mayer said, if Obama can win by large margins and still fight to a tie in the suburbs, he might take the state. Another key area is Scranton and the northeastern part of the state. Obama’s running mate, Senator Joe Biden, hails from Scranton, and he has been visiting often over the past few months. “That area went heavily for [Senator] Hillary [Clinton], and if it changes to Obama, you will see Joe Biden sitting in the second seat in the White House,” Mayer said.
On Monday, Thurber declared Pennsylvania “over with.” He said McCain desperately needs a win in the state, but he doesn’t appear within striking distance. If it is close, Thurber suggested keeping an eye on Bucks County, outside of Philadelphia, an area he said McCain has to win in order to bring those suburban Republicans into the mix. He also said to watch the rural areas of the state, where McCain is more popular among the working-class voters.
Miami, Florida
With 2000’s hanging chads and a squeaker in 2004, the Sunshine State has been the thorn in the side of presidential politics for two elections running. At press time, the state was still too close to call. With the fourth-largest number of electoral votes in the country (27), Mayer noted that Florida is important because it is diverse. “In Florida, you have the redneck north, an unusual mix of Hispanic populations, an active black community, high-tech white immigrants and, of course, the huge Jewish population, all of which make it unpredictable,” he said.
Mayer said to watch the heavily Jewish South Florida area on Tuesday night, because “it’s the real thing” when it comes to predicting how Florida will go. “Watch McCain’s margins in Miami, because it has one of the largest concentrations of Jews in the country, and they vote like crazy,” he said. “If McCain is doing better than Bush did in 2004 in those very Democratic areas, that might mean that Obama’s message is not getting through.”
Thurber said the I-4 corridor, the traditionally Republican territory in the center of the state that encompasses Jacksonville and Pensacola, is a toss-up at this point, with both Obama and McCain having hammered the area repeatedly over the past few months. He also said the way the Cuban vote breaks in and around Miami could be a crucial determinant in who carries the state.
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Early Voting Exit Polls 2008 and Presidential Election Results. In a matter of hours, you are going to start hearing talk of exit polls. We are going to post them ourselves, right here, in this entry.
For those looking to get details on the early voting exit polls in 2008 and the U.S. Presidential election results, then you have come to the right place.
What are Exit polls? These are surveys that are taken when a voter leaves their voting place; it’s taken from just a small percentage of voters and as such can only be taken lightly. With the actual result in elections taking hours to count, these polls help voters get news on how things are shaping.
In a matter of hours, you are going to start hearing talk of exit polls. We are going to post them ourselves, right here, in this entry.
But, before you get ahead of yourself, there’s a question that needs to be asked: Should you trust the exit polling data? The short answer is: No. The longer answer is: Noooooooooooo. Right now, if there’s one memory that remains — stinging
You can get more information on how to read exit polls and also early voting exit poll results by Governor, Senate, and President exit polls on CNN. You can read full exit poll results once all polls have closed on that page or view the Presidential election live results as they happen here.
What do you think about exit polls and how much do you trust what they show?
The following are just comments. Please leave yours afterwards:
Republicans voters are often lowkey and are harder to read. The exit polls are not quite a pridictor that one hopes for. I belive the Sen. Mcain will do much better than expected.
McCain 4 President. Obama STINKS HAHAHAHA
Hey sou, I hope it made you feel better leaving that comment because you are going to have Obama rocking your world for the next 4 years. Enjoy!
I dont think America is ready to turn socialist…..Remember, socialism, communism, and fascism, Nazism…all the same..Spread the wealth???I think not..BARACK IS A S O C I A L I S T HE SAID SO HIMSELF TO JOE THE PLUMBER…socialist want to destroy our Constitution…
anyways, get out and vote either way..
GOD BLESS AMERICA…
Wow, dave par and sou, you two really show your lack of education…comparing Barack’s views on wealth inequalities in the U.S to Communism…Clearly neither of you have ever taken an economic, sociology, or poli sci course relating to these very different social frameworks. Before you make blanket statements perhaps you should read into the subject a little bit–oh ya but that would detract from Joe the Plumber–wait I mean Joe the six pack laborer who could care less about the reality on the ground but attaches to the first fear mongering sound bight a social conservative throws your direction. Clearly the top 5% of our country DESERVES over 95% of the wealth as the middle class shrinks and your blue collar ass slips into poverty. WAKE UP, the power elite are relying on your ignorance.
Barack Obama is an intelligent, sophisticated attorney that understands the current and future issues of our nation. He has set out a precise, decisive plan for the course this nation MUST take in order to survive in an international economy confronting the United States. The Euro currency has over taken the US dollar as the stronger currency. Under the present administration, we have our currency sink to an all-time low in over three (3) decades, we have watched aghast as our young men are plunged into a needless war resulting in the death of over 4,000 of our youth. We have experienced a mass recession, which certainly transform into a severe depression, as a result of the Bush economic policy–”strategerizing”– by rewarding the top upper crust wealthy, as our jobs are outsourced over seas. If you were to read the McCain platform you would see the mirror image of this same Bush economic and social policy. Indeed, McCain is seeking “change” in the form of reactionary policies for a woman’s right to choose–seeking to over turn Roe v. Wade–, the trickle down affect of rewarding the wealthy while the middle class and lower class starve for jobs and economic equality. I am a white attorney, and have devoted my entire life to understanding those economic and social policies most just in our great nation. Mr. McCain does not represent the type of “change” this nation is in desperate need of. Barack Obama presents the most just and necessary means of putting our nation back on track. Please do not make the same mistake that has plagued our great nation we made eight (8) and four (4) years ago, respectively. Vote for Barack Obama and the policies he brings for a brighter and successful America. Thank you for your consideration.
well philly, i guess you showed me, i hope you feel better, last I heard America stand for freedom, and most of the rich in this country EARNED their wealth, THATS THE REAL AMERICA, not by taking from them to give to sorry lazy asses like yourself, (see i can swear too) do you even have a clue on what a socialist is?? i dont think you do, so ill explain it to you in layman terms just for you…
a socialist want to take from the rich and give to the lazy..
a socialist want no private gun ownership..
a socialist wants to tax everyone to support the state..
a socialist wants to take your rights away, less rights, easier for them to CONTROL you..
just to name a few…in layman terms…just for you philly..
one good thing about you philly is at least you got to vote today, and although we dont agree with each other, i would die to make sure you keep your right as provided by our Constitution…GOD BLESS AMERICA..and our right to disagree..
Dave, thanks for your definition of – socialism….but isn’t that what they do in Alaska? As it so happens, what Obama wants to do is instead of giving tax breaks to the wealthy for the “trickle down” economics, we build from the base up, which has shown to be good for all people. I don’t consider that socialism and seriously, even John McCain said Obama isn’t a socialist….idiot.
Too bad joe the plumber isnt a registered plumber and too bad he owes back taxes, maybe somebody would give a **** about what the criminal has to say.
We already have socialist programs, ie: social security, medicaid and medicare. Plus, wasn’t it John McCain who wants to buy mortgages people can’t afford from the banks, at face value mind you, and renegotiate the terms. Is that socialism? Back in 2000, John McCain supported rich people paying more taxes, on Hardball he said “Look, here’s what I really believe: That when you are, when you reach a certain level of comfort, there’s nothing wrong with paying somewhat more. But at the same time it shouldn’t be totally out of proportion”. When McCain said it, no problem, when Obama said it, Republicans cried “socialist, marxist, communist”. People should do some research and stop regurgitating the Republican talking points from Fox News.
I know that all the rednecks in the country will enjoy the results of the election…….because our next president will be Obama.
Just be intelligent and admit the truth, Obama will win.
LOL tina i guess our Constitution meens nothing to you, compare the workers party outline to the democrates and you will find they agree on over 80% of the topics, so answer me this…
were does barack stand on the first and second admendments???
ill help you..
in laymans terms like the guy before you
barack will press to destroy talk radio (for one example of free speech gone)
ban all ownership of guns and ammo (for example of destroying the second admendment)
and thats just a little of what he stands for, and since i dont know you i wont be calling you names, but thats ok becouse i have found that since democrates cant back up anything with fact they tend to call names..i do think bush has messed up our country in the last few years..like they say, a democrate will possitily raise taxes, a republican you stand a 50-50 chance of higher taxes…nice talking to ya..
Wow, dave par, I actually feel sorry for you. You can barely spell, so I know you have never read the Constitution, and to think the Bush administration did a good job running this country is just absurd. Godspeed dave par.
Oh dave par, I think you meant to say naive, nieve means clenched fist. Maybe you should use that clenched fist to knock some sense into that poor, empty brain of yours. The first amendment states that Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances, the second amendment states that a well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed. If there is anything else I can do for you, just let me know.
Early Voting Exit Polls 2008 and Presidential Election Results. For those looking to get details on the early voting exit polls in 2008 and the U.S. Presidential election results, then you have come to the right place. Editing by Elizabeth Charles
Presidential Election Results Roll In, Take Care Ohio Florida Pennsylvania Virginia. The four contested states hold key to winning presidency
Florida. Ohio. Virginia. Pennsylvania. After nearly two years of stump speeches, commercials, infomercials, debates, robocalls, conventions, a landfill’s worth of mailings, hundreds of rallies and a mountain of yard signs, the presidential race could be decided Tuesday (November 4) by a handful of precincts in four crucial states. Editing by Alice Liu
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